Study of the Russian and world market conditions for urea-ammonia mixture

Specification

Summary

General product information

World UAN market

Current trends in the global UAN market

Total volume, dynamics, structure and trends of world UAN production

Total volume, dynamics, structure and trends of world UAN consumption

The structure of the world UAN trade

Dynamics of the world trade of UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate

Main exporting countries of UAN

Main importing countries of UAN

The main UAN importers among the sanction-free countries

Import duties on UAN

Structure of world prices for UAN and substitute goods

Dynamics and structure of world prices for UAN, 2017-2022

Price level for UAN when imported into sanction-free countries

Price level for substitute goods when imported into sanction-free countries

Price level for UAN when exported from net exporting countries

Identification of price dependence between UAN and substitute goods

UAN price forecast until 2027

Forecast of the world market development

Factors affecting the UAN market

Forecast of production by main producing and exporting countries

Forecast of possible changes in the structure of UAN supplies by key consumer countries

Forecast of production and consumption of UAN in the world until 2027

Russian UAN market

Dynamics of Russian production of UAN, structure by manufacturers

Dynamics of the Russian UAN market, balance of supply and demand

Current trends in the Russian UAN market

Dynamics and forecast of Russian prices for UAN until 2027

Forecast of the development of the Russian market

Planned introduction of capacities for the production of UAN until 2027

Forecast of production and consumption of UAN in Russia until 2027

UAN market of the CIS countries

The size of the UAN market of the CIS countries, assessment of the influence of their producers

UAN production in the CIS countries

Consumption of UAN in the CIS countries

Forecast of possible changes in the supply structure until 2027

Plans for commissioning capacities for the production of UAN in the CIS countries

Forecast of possible changes in the structure of deliveries in the context of the CIS countries

Transport infrastructure, transportation cost

Characteristics of the transport infrastructure for export from the Russian Federation: the presence of terminals for transshipment in ports or at the border

Cost of transportation to main export markets

Appendices

Appendix 1. Dynamics of quarterly world prices for UAN, substitute goods and natural gas

Appendix 2. Reference list of LLC PK Tekhmash (TM Nagro) for the supply of mortar units for the preparation of UAN

LIST OF TABLES AND DIAGRAMS

Table 1. The main types of nitrogen fertilizers

Table 2. Content of the main active substance

Table 3. Advantages and disadvantages of UAN

Table 4. Dynamics and structure of world production and capacities of UAN by regions; capacity utilization, 2017-2021, million tons

Table 5. Dynamics and structure of world UAN production by regions and countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 6. Dynamics and structure of world UAN production by manufacturers, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 7. Dynamics and structure of the world market (consumption) of UAN by regions, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 8. The balance of supply and demand in the global UAN market by region, 2021, million tons

Table 9. The balance of supply and demand in the global UAN market by leading consumer countries, 2021, thousand tons

Table 10. Dynamics of world trade of UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 11. Main UAN exporting countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons, million dollars

Table 12. Structure of exports of the main UAN exporting countries by countries of destination, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 13. Main net exporting countries of UAN, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 14. Main UAN importing countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons, million dollars

Table 15. The structure of imports of the main importing countries of UAN by countries of origin, 2017-2021, thousand tons, %

Table 16. Main net importing countries of UAN, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 17. Major friendly importing countries of UAN, 2017-2021

Table 18. The volume of UAN imports of friendly countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 19. The main supplying countries of UAN to friendly countries, 2021, thousand tons

Table 20. Import duties on nitrogen fertilizers, including UAN for deliveries to Europe

Table 21. Import duties on UAN for deliveries to the USA

Table 22. Dynamics of world prices for UAN, 2017-Q1 2022, dollars per ton

Table 23. Dynamics of average import prices for UAN by main importing countries, 2017-2021, dollars per ton

Table 24. Dynamics of average import prices for carbamide by main importing countries, 2017-2021, dollars per ton

Table 25. Dynamics of average import prices for ammonium nitrate by main importing countries, 2017-2021, dollars per ton

Table 26. Dynamics of average export prices for UAN by main exporting countries, 2017-2021, dollars per ton

Table 27. Dynamics of world prices for UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonia, 2017-Q1 2022, dollars per ton

Table 28. Selling price dynamics for UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonia from CF Industries (the world's largest producer), 2017-2021, dollars per ton

Table 29. Natural gas price forecast by the world's leading agencies, 2022-2027, dollars per MMBTU

Table 30. Dynamics and structure of world UAN production by regions and countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 31. Forecast of the structure of world trade of UAN by main exporting countries, 2021-2027

Table 32. Conditions of consumption of nitrogen fertilizers (including UAN) by main consumer countries, 2021, thousand tons

Table 33. Dynamics of UAN consumption and imports of nitrogen fertilizers in the USA, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 34. Dynamics of UAN imports in the USA by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 35. Urea import dynamics in the USA by supplying countries, 2017-2017, thousand tons

Table 36. Dynamics of imports of ammonium nitrate in the USA by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 37. Dynamics of UAN consumption and nitrogen fertilizer Imports in France, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 38. Dynamics of UAN imports in France by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 39. Urea import dynamics in France by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 40. Dynamics of UAN consumption and imports of nitrogen fertilizers in Australia, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 41. Dynamics of UAN imports in Australia by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 42. Urea import dynamics in Australia by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 43. Dynamics of UAN consumption and imports of nitrogen fertilizers in Argentina, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 44. Dynamics of UAN imports in Argentina by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 45. Urea import dynamics in Argentina by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 46. Dynamics and structure of fertilizer consumption in Germany by type, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 47. Dynamics of UAN consumption and imports of nitrogen fertilizers in Germany, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 48. Dynamics of UAN imports in Germany by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 49. Urea import dynamics in Germany by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 50. Dynamics of UAN consumption and imports of nitrogen fertilizers in the UK, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 51. Dynamics of UAN imports in the UK by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 52. Urea import dynamics in the UK by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 53. Dynamics of imports of ammonium nitrate in the UK by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 54. Dynamics of UAN consumption and imports of nitrogen fertilizers in Spain, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 55. Dynamics of UAN imports in Spain by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 56. Urea import dynamics in Spain by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 57. Dynamics of fertilizer consumption in Hungary by type, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 58. Dynamics of UAN consumption and imports of nitrogen fertilizers in Hungary, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 59. Dynamics of UAN imports in Hungary by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 60. Urea import dynamics in Hungary by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 61. Dynamics of imports of ammonium nitrate in Hungary by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 62. Dynamics of UAN consumption and imports of nitrogen fertilizers in Brazil, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 63. Dynamics of UAN imports in Brazil by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 64. Urea import dynamics in Brazil by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 65. Dynamics of imports of ammonium nitrate in Brazil by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 66. Dynamics of UAN consumption and imports of nitrogen fertilizers in Mexico, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 67. Dynamics of UAN imports in Mexico by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 68. Urea import dynamics in Mexico by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 69. Dynamics of imports of ammonium nitrate in Mexico by supplying countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 70. UAN import forecast by importing countries, 2022-2027, thousand tons

Table 71. Forecast of the global UAN market and global UAN trade, 2022-2027, thousand tons

Table 72. Dynamics and structure of Russian UAN production by manufacturers; capacity utilization, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 73. Dynamics of the Russian market of UAN and substitute products (urea, ammonium nitrate), 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 74. Structure of UAN deliveries from Russian manufacturers, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 75. Dynamics and structure of production of UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate in the Russian Federation, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 76. Dynamics and structure of consumption of UAN, carbamide, ammonium nitrate in the Russian Federation, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 77. The share of exports of UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate from production volume, 2017-2021, % of thousand tons

Table 78. Dynamics of UAN prices for deliveries to domestic and foreign markets, price level for natural gas, 2017-2021

Table 79. Dynamics of producer prices for UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate when supplied to the domestic market, quarterly, 2022, rubles per ton without VAT, ex works

Table 80. Forecast of UAN prices for supplies to the domestic market, 2021-2027, rubles per ton without VAT

Table 81. Dynamics of Russian export prices for UAN by manufacturers, dollars per ton without VAT, at the border of the Russian Federation, 2017 - January-May 2022

Table 82. Plans of current UAN manufacturers

Table 83. UAN, urea and ammonia capacity increments in Russia (based on current announced projects)

Table 84. Plans for the introduction of new capacities of UAN, urea and ammonia in Russia

Table 85. Plans for the purchase of mineral fertilizers until 2025 according to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, thousand tons (in terms of active ingredient)

Table 86. Dynamics and structure of Russian production of UAN by types of fertilizers, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 87. Dynamics and structure of Russian consumption of UAN by types of fertilizers, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 88. Forecast of Russian production and consumption of UAN, 2022-2027, thousand tons

Table 89. Availability of industrial production of nitrogen fertilizers (including UAN) in the CIS countries

Table 90. Dynamics and structure of UAN production in the CIS countries (without the Russian Federation) by manufacturers, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 91. Dynamics and structure of the UAN market in the CIS countries (excluding the Russian Federation) by countries, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 92. UAN imports in the CIS by countries, 2012-2021, thousand tons

Table 93. UAN exports from the CIS by countries, 2012-2021, thousand tons

Table 94. Current capacities for the production of urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN in the CIS by countries and manufacturers, 2021, thousand tons

Table 95. Plans for commissioning new capacities for the production of urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN in the CIS, 2022-2027, thousand tons

Table 96. Plans for commissioning new capacities for the production of urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN in the CIS by countries, 2021/ 2027, thousand tons

Table 97. Plans for commissioning new capacities for the production of urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN in Belarus and Ukraine

Table 98. Plans for commissioning new facilities for the production of urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN in Uzbekistan

Table 99. Plans to commission new capacities for the production of urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN in other CIS countries

Table 100. Parameters of the market of nitrogen fertilizers in the CIS countries

Table 101. Dynamics of imports of nitrogen fertilizers (urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN) to the Republic of Moldova, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Table 102. Forecast of UAN market in the CIS countries, 2021-2027, thousand tons

Table 103. The main terminals for the export of Russian liquid fertilizers

Table 104. UAN export structure by shippers and ports, 2017-2021

Table 105. Characteristics of UAN transshipment terminals

Table 106. Distance to the main border stations for export deliveries

Table 107. The cost of transporting UAN to the main export markets

Table 108. The reference list for Russia

Table 109. The reference list for Kazakhstan

Diagram 1. Dynamics and structure of world UAN production by regions, 2017-2021, million tons

Diagram 2. Dynamics and structure of world consumption of nitrogen fertilizers (UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate) by product type, 2017-2021, million tons

Diagram 3. Dynamics and structure of the global UAN consumption market by region, 2017-2021, million tons

Diagram 4. Structure of world trade of UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate, 2017-2021, million tons

Diagram 5. Dynamics of world trade of UAN, including the share of Russia, 2017-2021, million tons

Diagram 6. Dynamics of world prices for UAN, 2017 – Q1 2022, dollars per ton

Diagram 7. Dynamics of average import prices for UAN of the leading importing countries (friendly and unfriendly), 2017-2021, dollars per ton

Diagram 8. Dynamics of average export prices for UAN of the leading exporting countries, 2017-2021, dollars per ton

Diagram 9. Dependence of world prices for UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonia, natural gas (Henry Hub), 2017 – 1Q 2022, dollars per ton

Diagram 10. Dependence of world prices for UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonia, natural gas (TTF Europe), 2017 – 1Q 2022, dollars per ton

Diagram 11. Dynamics of selling prices for UAN, urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonia CF, 2017-2021, dollars per ton

Diagram 12. Forecast of world prices for UAN, 2022-2027, dollars per ton

Diagram 13. Forecast of the global market and global trade of UAN, 2021-2027, million tons

Diagram 14. Dynamics of Russian production of UAN, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Diagram 15. Dynamics of the Russian market of UAN and substitute products, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Diagram 16. Dynamics and structure of the Russian production of UAN in the context of supply lines, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Diagram 17. Balance of supply and demand in the Russian UAN market, 2017-2021, thousand tons

Diagram 18. Price level for UAN in the domestic market by producers, 2022 (full year, evaluation), thousand rubles per ton without VAT, ex works

Diagram 19. Forecast of Russian production and consumption of UAN, 2022-2027, thousand tons

Diagram 20. Dynamics and structure of UAN production in the CIS countries (excluding Russia), 2017-2021, thousand tons, %

Diagram 21. Dynamics and structure of the UAN market in the CIS countries (without the Russian Federation), 2017-2021, thousand tons

Diagram 22. UAN supply and demand balance in the CIS countries (excluding Russia), 2017-2021, thousand tons

Diagram 23. Dynamics of world quarterly prices for UAN, urea, ammonia and natural gas, 2017 – 1Q 2022, dollars per ton, dollars per million BTU

Urea-ammonia mixture is the only nitrogen fertilizer containing three forms of nitrogen - nitrate, ammonium and amide. The combination of three forms of nitrogen allows for prolonged plant nutrition and complete nitrogen uptake. The presence of nitrogen in the amide form in the UAN composition allows the fertilizer to be used also for foliar top dressing.

The increase in the cost of natural gas and ammonia on the world market in 2022 led to a multiple increase in prices for the urea-ammonia mixture. Taking into account the competitive advantages of Russia, the production of urea-ammonia mixture has become a very attractive business.