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Study of the Russian energy market, coniferous timber and waste paper markets

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Дата разработки: 01.02.2023

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Study of the Russian energy market, coniferous timber and waste paper markets


Specification
1. Russian energy market
1.1. Electricity for industrial consumers
1.1.1. The average level of selling prices by months, in federal districts in January 2021 - July 2022
1.1.2. The forecast of the average level of Russian prices from August 2022 to December 2023
1.1.3. The volume of production in the context of federal districts in January 2021 - July 2022
1.2. Thermal energy for industrial consumers (thermal energy released by boiler rooms and power plants)
1.2.1. The average level of selling prices by months, in federal districts in January 2021 - July 2022
1.2.2. Forecast of the average level of Russian prices from August 2022 to December 2023
1.2.3. Production volume by federal districts for January 2021 - July 2022
1.3. Natural gas for industry
1.3.1. The average level of selling prices by months, by federal districts for January 2021 - July 2022
1.3.2. Forecast of the average level of Russian prices from August 2022 to December 2023
2. Russian market of coniferous timber
2.1. Pulpwood (timber) of coniferous species
2.1.1. The average level of selling prices of Russian manufacturers by months, by federal districts for January 2021 - July 2022
2.1.2. Forecast of the average level of Russian prices from August 2022 to December 2023
2.1.3. Production volume for January 2021 - July 2022
2.2. Sawn softwood
2.2.1. The average level of selling prices of Russian manufacturers by months, by federal districts for January 2021 - July 2022
2.2.2. Forecast of the average level of Russian prices from August 2022 to December 2023
2.2.3. Production volume for January 2021 - July 2022
3. Russian market of waste paper (MS-5B)
3.1. The current state of the Russian waste paper market
3.2. The average level of selling prices for MS-5B waste paper, an estimate of the volume of collection of waste paper for 2021-2022
3.3. Price forecast

APPENDICES
Appendix 1. Prerequisites for the electricity price forecast of the energy market regulator NP Sovet Rynka for 2023
Appendix 2. FAS marginal tariffs by regions

LIST OF TABLES AND DIAGRAMS
Table 1. Quarterly dynamics of average prices for electricity supplied to industrial consumers by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per MWh (excluding VAT)
Table 2. Monthly dynamics of average prices for electricity supplied to industrial consumers by regions, from January 2021 to November 2022, rubles per MWh (excluding VAT)
Table 3. Forecast of the average level of Russian electricity prices for industrial consumers, 2022-2023, rubles per MWh (excluding VAT)
Table 4. Projected changes in prices (tariffs) for electricity in 2023–2025 in accordance with the "Forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the planned period of 2024 and 2025" of the Ministry of Economic Development
Table 5. Structure of electricity production in Russia by federal districts, thousand gigawatt-hours, 2021 – first 10 months of 2022
Table 6. Structure of electricity production in Russia by generation sources, thousand gigawatt-hours, 2021 – first 10 months of 2022
Table 7. Quarterly dynamics of average prices for thermal energy supplied by power plants by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per Gcal (excluding VAT)
Table 8. Monthly dynamics of average prices for thermal energy supplied by power plants by regions, from January 2021 to November 2022, rubles per Gcal (excluding VAT)
Table 9. Quarterly dynamics of average prices for thermal energy supplied by boiler houses by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per Gcal (excluding VAT)
Table 10. Monthly dynamics of average prices for thermal energy supplied by boiler houses by regions, from January 2021 to November 2022, rubles per Gcal (excluding VAT)
Table 11. Forecast of the average level of Russian prices for thermal energy, rubles per Gcal (excluding VAT), 2022-2023
Table 12. Structure of heat production by federal districts, million Gcal, 2021 – first 10 months of 2022
Table 13. Quarterly dynamics of average gas prices for industrial consumers by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per thousand m3 (excluding VAT)
Table 14. Monthly dynamics of average gas prices for industrial consumers by regions, from January 2021 to October 2022, rubles per thousand m3 (excluding VAT)
Table 15. Projected changes in prices (tariffs) for gas and electricity in 2023–2025 in accordance with the "Forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the planned period of 2024 and 2025" of the Ministry of Economic Development
Table 16. Forecast of the average level of Russian gas prices for industrial consumers, 2022-2023, rubles per thousand m3 (excluding VAT)
Table 17. Quarterly dynamics of average prices for softwood timber for the production of pulp and wood pulp (pulpwood) by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per dense m3 (excluding VAT)
Table 18. Monthly dynamics of average prices for softwood timber for the production of pulp and wood pulp (pulpwood) by region, from January 2021 to November 2022, rubles per dense m3 (excluding VAT)
Table 19. Indicators of the Russian market of softwood timber and pulp
Table 20. Forecast of the average level of Russian producer prices for softwood timber for the production of pulp and wood pulp (pulpwood), 2022-2023, rubles per dense m3 (excluding VAT)
Table 21. Forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development within the framework of the "Forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the planning period of 2024 and 2025", baseline scenario
Table 22. The structure of softwood timber production in Russia by product types, from January 2021 to October 2022, thousand dense m3
Table 23. Monthly dynamics of the Russian production of softwood timber for the production of pulp and wood pulp (pulpwood) by regions, from January 2021 to October 2022, thousand dense m3
Table 24. Quarterly dynamics of average prices for sawn softwood by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per m3 (excluding VAT)
Table 25. Monthly dynamics of average prices for sawn softwood by regions, from January 2021 to November 2022, rubles per m3 (excluding VAT)
Table 26. Monthly dynamics of average prices for sawn softwood, export dynamics, from January 2022 to November 2022
Table 27. Forecast of the average level of Russian producer prices for sawn softwood, 2022-2023, rubles per m3 (excluding VAT)
Table 28. Monthly dynamics of the Russian production of sawn softwood by regions, from January 2021 to October 2022, thousand m3
Table 29. Dynamics of prices for MS-5B waste paper and waste container board, cross index, 2018-2022
Table 30. Dynamics of prices and volumes of collection of MS-5B waste paper, 2021-2022
Table 31. Dynamics of production of cardboard and corrugated packaging in Russia, 2018-2022
Table 32. Factors for forecasting prices for MS-5B waste paper
Table 33. Price forecast for MS-5B waste paper in 2023
Table 34. Initial data for making forecasts by NP Market Council of free (non-regulated) electricity prices for 2023
Table 35. Initial data for making forecasts by NP Council of the Market of free (non-regulated) prices for capacity per 1 MW of peak consumption for 2023
Table 36. Limit minimum and maximum levels of tariffs for thermal energy (capacity) produced in the mode of combined generation of electric and thermal energy by thermal energy sources with an installed generating capacity of 25 MW or more, on average for the subject

Diagram 1. Quarterly dynamics of average prices for electricity supplied to industrial consumers by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per MWh (excluding VAT)
Diagram 2. The structure of electricity generation in Russia by federal districts, %, first 10 months of 2022
Diagram 3. The structure of electricity generation in Russia by generation sources, %, first 10 months of 2022
Diagram 4. Quarterly dynamics of average prices for heat supplied by power plants by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per Gcal (excluding VAT)
Diagram 5. Quarterly dynamics of average prices for heat supplied by boiler houses by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per Gcal (excluding VAT)
Diagram 6. Structure of heat production by generation sources, %, first 10 months of 2022
Diagram 7. Structure of heat production in Russia by federal districts, million Gcal, %, first 10 months of 2022
Diagram 8. Quarterly dynamics of average gas prices for industrial consumers by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per thousand m3 (excluding VAT)
Diagram 9. Quarterly dynamics of average prices for softwood timber for the production of pulp and wood pulp (wood balance) by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per dense m3 (excluding VAT)
Diagram 10. Dynamics of average prices for softwood timber in the context of the purpose of timber, 2017-2022, rubles per dense m3 (excluding VAT)
Diagram 11. The structure of the Russian production of softwood timber for the production of pulp and wood pulp (wood balance) by regions, 2021 – first 10 months of 2022, % (of dense m3)
Diagram 12. Quarterly dynamics of average prices for sawn softwood by regions, Q1 2021 – Q3 2022, rubles per m3 (excluding VAT)
Diagram 13. Dynamics of average prices for sawn softwood in the Russian and world markets, 2017-2021, rubles per m3
Diagram 14. The structure of the Russian production of sawn softwood by regions, 2021 – first 10 months of 2022, % (of m3)
Diagram 15. Volume and structure of formation and collection of waste paper in Russia, million tons, 2021         
Diagram 16. Dynamics of formation and collection of MS-5B waste paper in Russia, 2017-2021, thousand tons
Diagram 17. Dynamics of prices for MS-5B waste paper, thousand rubles per ton (excluding VAT), 2021-2022 on a monthly basis
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