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Collection, systematization of the preparation of materials and the development of forecast demand scenarios for the processing products of hydrocarbon raw materials in foreign and domestic markets

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Дата разработки: 06.07.2017

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Collection, systematization of the preparation of materials and the development of forecast demand scenarios for the processing products of hydrocarbon raw materials in foreign and domestic markets

Hydrocarbon raw materials

1. Oil (oil and gas condensate mixture).

2. Stable gas condensate.

3. Direct gasoline (including the distillation of gas condensate is light).

Oil products

1. Autobenzin "Regular - 92".

2. Autobenzin "Premium - 95".

3. Autobenzin "Super - 98".

4. Diesel fuel is summer.

5. Diesel fuel winter (including Arctic).

6. Mazut GKT-100.

7. Benzole.

Liquefied hydrocarbon gases

1. Technical propane.

2. Technical butane.

3. Mixtures of propane and butane.

4. A wide fraction of light hydrocarbons (Shflu).

Technical gas sulfur

Gas chemical products

1. Polyethylene (PEVP, Penp, LPENP).

2. Methanol.

3. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC).

4. Polypropylene.

5. Polystyrol.

6. Butyl alcohols.

7. Karbamide.

8. Ammonia.

Helium

1. Forecasting includes the following periods:

Stage 1: 2015-2024

Stage 2: 2016-2025

Stage 3: 2017-2026

2. Forecast of demand for products in the domestic market:

2.1. The dynamics of production and consumption of products for the five -year period under consideration.

2.2. Segmentation of production production, including by:

- regional characteristics (constituent entities of the Russian Federation);

- manufacturers.

2.3. Segmentation of products consumption, including by:

- Consumer groups.

2.4. Identification of factors that affect the demand of the cumulators shown on the products of hydrocarbon processing in the domestic market.

2.5. Trends in the development of all -Russian demand and reasonable scenarios for the development of the domestic market for a ten -year period.

3. Forecast of the price level for products in the domestic market:

3.1. The dynamics of changes in the price level for products for the five -year period under consideration.

3.2. Identification of factors that affect the level of prices on the processing products of hydrocarbon raw materials in the domestic market.

3.3. Prices for the products of the studied company (with the exception of the company being studied), taking into account the reasonable scenarios for the development of the domestic market for a ten -year period.

4. Forecast of demand for products in the foreign market:

4.1. The dynamics and changes in the structure of export-import operations for the five-year period under consideration.

4.2. The dynamics of production and consumption of products in the foreign market for the five -year period under consideration.

4.3. Trends in the development of demand and reasonable scenarios for the development of the external market for a ten -year period.

5. Forecast of the price level for products in the foreign market:

5.1. The dynamics of changes in the price level for products for the five -year period under consideration.

5.2. Prices for the products of the studied company, taking into account the reasonable scenarios for the development of the external market for a ten -year period.

6. Scenarios of forecast demand for products in foreign and domestic markets:

6.1. Demand in the domestic market (on the territory of the Russian Federation) in the context of previously identified market segments (indicating the predicted demand for products of the studied company) for a ten -year period.

6.2. Demand in the foreign market (outside the territory of the Russian Federation) in the regional context (indicating the predicted demand for products of the studied company) for a ten -year period.

7. The initial data necessary for the provision of services:

The customer is obliged to provide the Contractor for the five -year period according to the production volumes of the studied company:

  • Autobenzinov;
  • diesel fuel;
  • fuel oil;
  • liquefied hydrocarbon gases;
  • wide fraction of hydrocarbons;
  • sulfur;
  • stable condensate.

File name: ТЗ-229-2015