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Comparative analysis (benchmarking) of the forecast structure of electricity consumption for the OEC of the Russian Federation for the prospect until 2050

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Дата разработки: 10.10.2018

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Comparative analysis (benchmarking) of the forecast structure of electricity consumption for the OEC of the Russian Federation for the prospect until 2050

1. A description of the basic scenario of socio-economic development of the country and regions and the demand for electricity until 2050 is performed in the weather section until 2025 and for five years after 2025.

2. Detailization of the basic scenario of socio-economic development of the country and regions is carried out in the context of federal districts

3. Detailization of the basic scenario of socio-economic development is carried out in accordance with the All-Russian Classifier of Economic Activities OK 029-2014 (KDSDITED GRUN. 2), approved by order of Rosstandart dated 07/31/2014) as amended 07.10.2016, and includes In itself:

a) agriculture, hunting and forestry

b) the extraction of fuel minerals

c) the extraction of other (non -fuel) minerals

d) processing production, except for coke production and oil products

e) production of coke and oil products

f) production and distribution of electricity, gas and water

g) construction

h) impaired transport

i) pipeline transport

K) other foreign

4. Detailization of the basic scenario of socio-economic development is performed in the amount necessary and sufficient to fulfill paragraph 5 of Subsection 3.1:

  • Based on the current medium and long-term forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia; The detailed parameters of forecasting for the scenario of socio-economic development of the country are agreed with the customer up to 10 days after the start of the provision of services;
  • Taking into account the contribution of large investment projects (with the bringing of key projects in the context of the regions);
  • With the determination for each type of economic activity, the forecast dynamics of value issues and other indicators that determine the electrical consumption in comparable prices.

5. The supply forecast for electricity until 2050 is performed in the weather section until 2025 and five years after 2025.

6. The prognosis of demand for electricity is developed with the release of the following components:

  • the main foreign economic activity specified in paragraph 3 of subsection 3.1., With the exception of subparagraphs b), e), e), and);
  • households;
    • oil production and refining;
    • production and processing of natural gas;
    • coal mining and coking;
    • pipeline transport of oil and oil products;
    • natural gas pipeline transport;
    • heat production on electric stoop;
    • electricity consumption for the needs of centralized heat supply;
    • The consumption of own needs of power plants, including a charge of hydro -accumulating power plants (hereinafter referred to as in abbreviations - SN ES)
    • Losses in the transmission and distribution of electricity.
File name: ТЗ-405-2018