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Forecasting methods

Method of expert assessments

Method of expert assessments

The method of expert assessments is based on the use of knowledge, experience, and intuition of specialists (experts), who can suggest the ways of market development and give a forecast for several years ahead.
The main factor contributing to the possibility of developing expert opinions is their understanding of the dependencies that have developed in a particular market, as well as taking into account the factors of influence.
Extrapolation

Extrapolation

Extrapolation consists in using the patterns of development of the studied market identified in the past to calculate indicators for future periods.
The method is suitable for stable, controlled conditions.
Correlation

Correlation

Relational prediction (correlation)

A forecasting method that takes into account the impact of other dependent variables on the predicted indicator.
For example, when forecasting market capacity, the dynamics of the development of consuming industries is taken into account.

Assessment of the impact of significant events

Assessment of the impact of significant events

Statements, plans or confirmed events regarding the opening, modernization, expansion or closure of certain manufacturers or consumers and distribution channels may have a significant impact on the development of the market situation in the future. 
Significant events may also include:
- change of owners of companies - market participants,
- research or project activities, 
- natural and man-made emergencies,
- actions of state bodies

Assessing the impact of substitute products

Assessing the impact of substitute products

Substitute goods, that is, substitute goods, can significantly influence the market of the products under study.
On the one hand, the products under study can replace substitute products.
On the other hand, the opposite situation is possible - when substitute products will replace the products under study. 
We aim to predict the direction and speed of possible replacement.
Estimation of latent demand potential

Estimation of latent demand potential

Latent demand is a demand that is not satisfied with the goods or services available on the market. We strive not only to identify the deterrents to consumption, but also to find ways to eliminate them. 
Forecasting by analogy (method of precedents)

Forecasting by analogy (method of precedents)

We carefully compare the situation of the studied products with other studies. In the case of a similar situation, we believe that the application of the same techniques will lead to the same, similar results as in another case.
Method of logical constructions

Method of logical constructions

The method of logical constructions is to build a reasonable cause-and-effect chain according to the “if & then” type. In this case, it is necessary to have a sufficient amount of information (facts and dependencies) about the forecasting object.